Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Climbs Above 6000; Dow Jumps as Trump Rally Steams Ahead; Nvidia, Tesla, and More Movers

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Nov. 11, 2024 at 12:56 PM EST

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By

Connor Smith

The Trump trade was in full swing, with financials and Tesla leading the broader market higher.

The S&P 500 was up 0.2%, and the Dow was up 353 points, or 0.8%. The Nasdaq was down slightly, weighed on by chip stocks.

The Dow was on track to close above 44,000 for the first time and the S&P was on pace to close above 6000 for the first time.

Traders were piling into investments that could benefit from Trump stances on regulation, taxes, drilling, and crypto.

The U.S. dollar and Bitcoin were up; WTI crude oil futures were down below $70 a barrel to $68.12.

The big question: How long the 2024 election trade can last?

“As everyone pulls out the 2016 Trump playbook, let me remind you that in the aftermath of that election, the market had come off a flat performance for months and investor sentiment was fairly depressed,” wrote David Rosenberg, of Rosenberg Research.

Rosenberg points out the S&P’s forward P/E was 17 times compared to about 23 times today. And the equity risk premium in November 2016 was about 400 basis points compared to 13 basis points now. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

At the same time, fourth-quarter 2024 and full-year 2025 earnings expectations are coming down.

Rosenberg argues that in a world where valuations are “governed by rationality as opposed to blind optimism,” a 2% real risk-free interest rate would pose a constraint on valuations. That compares to 2016, when it was near-zero.

“As we have been saying, you may not get rich with your bond holdings, but they are a ballast in the portfolio, with quality, certainty-of-payment, and income characteristics that are not shared with any other asset classes,” he wrote. “Bonds mitigate portfolio losses when the storm clouds roll in — and they always do eventually roll in."